Introduction to Betting on NFL Player Props

Bias in Betting and Prediction Markets

How to Spot Profitable Prop Bets and Avoid the Worst Lines

Sportsbooks make millions from inexperienced bettors who make easy to avoid mistakes betting on NFL player props.

These bets make match-day entertaining and with the right approach can be profitable.

Before you jump in, make sure you understand where the value can be found. Whether it is passing yards for a specific player, rushing, receiving stats, or whether your selection will score a touchdown.

After discussing the main NFL prop bets, I have covered the types of promos sportsbooks run for these bets. With so much profit to be made, they like to get new bettors in the habit of adding a prop bet or two. For smart bettors, taking advantage of these offers is a quick way to boost your bankroll.

NFL Prop Bet Types

For regular season games, the core NFL props follow the same patterns.

I have covered specials like season-long props, Superbowl specials and live-betting (in-play betting) props separately in the sections below). Note that some books specialize in the main televised games each match-day, while others cover every game.

Will a Quarterback throw for over / under X number of yards?

Will a running back rush for over/under X number of yards?

Will a wide receiver have over/under X number of yards receiving?

All three of these markets will be set up so that there is a roughly equal chance of both sides of the bet winning. This means you’ll usually receive the same odds about both sides. This is -110 at most sportsbooks, which is  10/11 if using fractional odds, and 1.91 if using.

It is important to know that only yardage gained when doing the specified activity will count. For example, a running back that runs for 107 yards and makes 4 catches for 51 yards will only have 51 yards to count towards his yardage.

Position by Position Guide to Regular NFL Player Props

Quarterbacks:

Quarterbacks will have a market based on the number of yards they’ll pass .

When assessing this market, you must consider how many yards he averages per game.

This is a great starting point, but you’ll have to delve much deeper than this.

Next you should consider if he performs better at home or on the road? Many QB’s do perform better at home, so check out the stats to see how much better per game they are.

Now consider the strength of the opposition. The first thing you’ll consider is how good the opposition defense is against the pass, and obviously a poorer than average defense might imply the player will gain more yards than might normally be expected.

You should also consider the opposition as a whole, including their most recent form. If they have a poor offense, it will mean that your quarterback might spend more time on the field, meaning more yards again.

Finally, you should consider the weather. A game played in driving wind will be awful for a quarterback, so much so that the head coach will probably put the ball into the hands of a running back much more than often. Adverse weather will have a negative effect on the yardage. If the game is played indoors, the QB will have no problems.

Having considered these aspects, come up with a number that you expect the player to achieve, and then compare it to the line set by the books. If your numbers are close, there may not be value. Smart bettors would look for different opportunities here. Once you get into the flow of calculating the variables, opportunities where there is significant value will be easy to spot. Ket here is not to bet where the value is small (or even negative). That will end up costing you money in the long run.

Player Props for Running Backs

You’ll consider many of the same aspects for running backs. Factors such as how he performs on average and if he is any better when playing at home.

The opposing team must also be considered as a whole, along with how the defense performs against the rush. You should also consider the players playing alongside him. Most teams will have a running back that carries most of the workload, while some teams will share this out amongst two or more players. This can be very important if a key player is returning from injury, as this might mean that the named running back will see a lot less of the ball than usual. 

As touched on when discussing prop bets for the quarterback position, adverse weather might be advantageous to the running back.

Again, comparing your calculations with the lines on offered is the key part. Don’t’ place any prop bet where there is no value!

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The performance of the receivers is very much linked to that of the quarterback. They will have a portion of the quarterback’s yards. So, when the quarterback has a bad game, so will his receivers.

This means you’ll use many of the same factors to consider this player’s performance. As well as considering how many catches a player makes per game, also look at how often the player is targeted for catches. If a player is targeted often and is up against a weak defensive player (a cornerback for the wide receiver) it might mean additional catches and yards.

Where Can I find this Information?

There are multiple factors to consider, and it might take some time to come to a conclusion, but the more work you put in, the better off you will be.

You’ll be able to find all this info at a number of US-based sports media websites, although I would recommend the following site, which is packed with all the information you need:  http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ (no personal or commercial connection with this site!)

Season Long NFL Prop Bets

MVP (most valuable player) bets are a great way to put your judgement on the line.

While this type of prop bet is entertaining, it rarely offers real value. When you compare the lines on offer with the number of players that might win it, locking up your cash for a season makes little sense.

Here were the last five winners at the time of writing:

  • 2026: Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks)
  • 2025: Matthew Stafford (LA Rams)
  • 2024: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
  • 2023: Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
  • 2022: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

You can also bet on player of the in different positions:

  • Offensive Player of the Year
  • Defensive Player of the Year
  • Comeback Player of the Year
  • Rookie PoY Offensive
  • Rookie PoY Defensive

League leaders in passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks and touchdowns are popular props. Over / under markets for individuals on each of these are also on offer.

For my thoughts on the pros / cons of locking up your money for a full season, see this article on season-long sports bets. (LINK)

Superbowl Prop Bets

With so many people who don’t usually bet piling in on the Superbowl, the number of prop bets explodes.

This does include novelty bets involving the half-time show, coin toss and celebrity-themed wagers, I’ll stick to NFL props which involve the match here.

MVP is a popular prop. The most valuable player usually comes from the winning team. The only time the Superbowl MVP was awarded to a player from the losing team was in 1971. That year, Chuck Howley, a linebacker for the Cowboys, won the awards. This was despite the Cowboys losing 13-16 to the Baltimore Colts.

You’ll find touchdown scorer markets for the Superbowl that include:

  • Anytime touchdown scorer
  • First / Last
  • 2+ Touchdowns by named player

Similar markets run for all the positions. With quarterback props a popular bet. You’ll also find lists of running back, wide receiver / tight end and defensive player props.

Value from these props can be found. Again, doing your own research / assessment is the starting point. When it comes to celebrities, the weight of public money can move the lines. This makes it possible to find real value for those star players. When the weight of public expectation does not match the statistics, smart money pours in.

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