Best Prediction Markets: How to Choose a Prediction Market?

Before you rush a deposit on Kalshi or Polymarket, it pays to sit back and decide exactly what you are after from a prediction market.

If you are arbing bets from sportsbooks, your criteria might be different from someone looking to hedge crypto prices. If you need liquid markets to place big bets, or want to avoid excessive fees, your choices will be different.

Most people end up using the ‘big two.’

But doing that exclusively and placing prediction bets without considering whether this is the best platform will eat into your profits over time.

Here are the key factors I think about when reviewing each prediction market:

• Range of Markets: The big financial markets and sports are on all platforms. This hides major differences in props, niche markets, and entertainment.
• Liquidity / Depth: The odds-on offer are only as good as the liquidity behind them. If you can’t get your bets fulfilled at the current prices, those arb opportunities quickly disappear.
• Fee Structures: There is a growing realization that fees are eating into your profits at a rate too high to justify. Low fee alternatives need liquidity, but it is growing.
• Clear Resolutions: Avoid prediction markets with any history of ambiguous resolution criteria. Carefully worded markets are a must-have.
• Easy Deposits and Withdrawals: Not only the range of payment methods available, but how quickly (and how much paperwork) is needed to get your profits back out.
• Licensing and Legal: Domestic and offshore / defi markets are competing for your business. The risk reward is a significant consideration, especially in states pushing back on sports markets.

You’ll find detailed reviews of all the best prediction markets here at High Tech Gambling. It will pay to decide what the most important criteria are for you personally before you sign up.

Table: Prediction Market Sites for Your Needs

Green Flags: Criteria that Make Good Prediction Markets Great

Green Flag #1: Deep Order Books (not just great odds)

It really won’t matter if you see amazing odds on an outcome, if $50 will fill the position, triggering worse odds for the next bets.

When you have confidence that the order books are deep enough to take your bets, arbs become more profitable. After all, there is little point going to all the trouble of arbing vs a sportsbook if the only profit you can lock in is ten bucks.

For me, deep order books are necessary, but not the only criteria. Books which are deep enough, combined with low fees, can be a green flag alone.

Green Flag #2: Fair Fee Structures

You’ll pay 4.75% on winning contracts at Polymarket. And only once you bet $250,000 will this go down. Kalshi has a 3.50% fee for winning bets. This compares favorably with the 5% vig on +110 lines at offshore sportsbooks. Yet it is far from the lowest fee structure out there.

Head to the decentralized markets, and you’ll cut those fees significantly. This does involve extra risk, so balancing fair fees with safety is critical. Comparing prediction market fees is a great start, but not enough alone to decide on which is the best platform.

Green Flag #3: Clear Resolution Rules

If a prediction market relies on judgement of its operators to decide how a market is resolved, you are taking on risk.

For many markets, there are clear external indexes, which simplify things. Other times, you’ll rely on super-clear wording of the contract. With the bigger brands, disputes are few and far between. The chances of a dispute are never zero, and if a reversal would be a disaster for your bankroll, you need to find a prediction market with a reputation for fair and fast resolution.

For decentralized prediction markets, this is even more important. In this case there may be nobody to appeal to if a decision is reversed or unfairly resolved. I strongly recommend sticking to clear markets, and if possible, making sure that an oracle or similar resolution mechanism is in place.

Green Flag #4: Legal Clarity (States vs Sports Betting Prediction Markets)

As I’m writing this, court cases are multiplying.

The latest is that Tarik Manour, founder of Kalshi, has been indicted on felony sports gambling charges in Utah. Meanwhile, the supreme court will ultimately decide on whether the states or CFDC has jurisdiction over the sports betting aspects of prediction markets.

I don’t personally fear Polymarket closing and my money disappearing in some legal dispute.

That said, arbing multiple bets or bonuses and having the prediction market parts of then suddenly closed and refunded could be expensive.

While offshore and decentralized prediction markets don’t have domestic legislation risks, there are legal issues with payments and other risks associated with these brands.

Green Flag #5: Easy Payments and Low Fees

Depositing and withdrawing from prediction market should not cost a penny for the bettors.

If you see fees, your choices should be to find a new payment method, or to find a better prediction market. When it comes to cashing out your wins, the speed of processing is a green flag. Brands which keep you waiting (even for a few days) are often doing this in the hope that you’ll get bored and use your pending balance to bet again.

Offshore brands and defi prediction markets use crypto rails (USDT, BTC and the like). If you are familiar with these, there are some great low-fee options with fast cashouts to enjoy.

Welcome Bonuses at the Best Prediction Markets

You won’t find the eye-catching welcome bonus deals at Prediction Markets that you find at sports betting sites.

Instead of the $1000 deals, $25 for new deposits is more common.

It’s a different business model and does not rely on promos in the same way.

The best way to think about bonuses and promos at prediction markets is to unlock sports betting site deals by hedging your risk.

You take a sports bonus, bet on both teams, and you have locked in a win that will (on average after fees) give you 45% to 48% of the bonus amount.

Look out for play-through at some sportsbooks, as this will change your strategy. Here you’ll try to lose on the offshore sportsbook and win at the Prediction Market. Those same bonus payments will be yours via a different route.

The same logic applies to promotions.

Recreational gamblers will use them to take a wild swing. Smart bettors see the value and will lock in a profit between the prediction markets and sportsbooks.

Note that bonus codes are used at many prediction market brands, these are simply to assign you to a referrer. You’ll get the bonus however you sign up as things stand.

Ongoing Promos and Specials

Once they have you, the prediction market deals stop dead!

I’m hoping that with more competition, they need to offer bettors some incentives. That said, with recent hikes in fees from Polymarket, things seem to be going in the opposite direction.

Offshore sportsbooks have regular free bets, picks contests, reload bonuses, reduced vig lines, parlay boosts, specials that return stakes on specific outcomes and cross-over deals with their casino or racebook.

Experienced bettors know that they can be hedged against the prediction markets. This locks in a profit by taking both sides. Players that prefer a gamble can always take on the risk with the free bets. If they lose, then hey, it was a freebie after all.

Decentralized prediction markets have an incentive to offer promotions and specials.

I’ll cover those separately right here at High Tech Gambling.

Payments: How to Deposit and Withdraw from Prediction Markets

How you deposit and get your winnings back out of prediction markets is split between the domestic sites (Polymarket US and Kalshi + others) and the unregulated international ones.

One thing you need to be aware of is deposit fees.

2% might not sound high, but it will quickly eat into your bankroll. When you add it to the 3.5% to 4.75% in settlement fees for winning contracts, you’ll need a significant edge just to break even.

Here are the popular deposit options:

• ACH transfer: Local bank transfer is popular but can trigger a 3-5 day delay while the prediction markets go through security checks.
• Bank Wire: Recommended for large deposits for real high rollers. Deposits are credited instantly.
• PayPal / Venmo / CashApp: All work, though look out for those processing fees. Note that CashApp won’t work for your withdrawals.

International / Offshore Prediction Market Sites:

• Polymarket USDC: The international instance of Polymarket only has one option, USDC on the Polygon network. This is a stablecoin, pegged to the dollar. This means the volatility that BTC, ETH and other coins experience is not an issue.
• Payment Apps: You won’t be able to use PayPal / Venmo etc. directly with international prediction markets. These are used to buy BTC, which can then be exchanged for USDC at an exchange. It’s a popular work-around.
• MoonPay: This app is great for offshore payments where the major coins are accepted. Your fiat deposits will be converted directly to USDC, which can be used on the site.

I’ll go into more depth on safely depositing and withdrawing from DeFi prediction markets in a separate post.

Best Prediction Markets: What Can You Bet On?

The depth of markets at Kalshi, Polymarket and others is a positive surprise for new bettors.

Everyone knows you can bet on sports, politics, finance and even the weather. What people miss is the depth of contracts available. Think of player props, totals, period bets, and even season-long wagers for a huge range of sports. Add 15-minute finance markets, fed interest rate decisions and even more niche financial indicators.

Here is a run-down of what to expect, starting with the most liquid markets:

• Sports: The major leagues and especially NFL have the deepest markets on all the big prediction market sites. Win contracts are the tip of the iceberg. You’ll find spreads, which are worded as Raiders to win by 4+ points, totals, props and much more. College games, minor leagues for many sports and international sports (soccer is huge) are also popular.
• Finance: A big plus about finance contracts at prediction markets is the clarity in the outcomes compared to politics / entertainment. Contracts are based on public indices, for example the NASDAQ, BTC price or ISM survey results. This is a popular way to bet in both breadth and time. Many of the markets are 15 minutes. You’ll be competing with pro traders and quants in these markets, so make sure you have a winning strategy before you commit money.
• Politics and Entertainment: This is where all the headlines and media coverage lives. Most people only hear about prediction markets in the context of Donald Trump’s next decision, or Taylor Swift’s love-life. What I like about these contracts is that they are rarely available elsewhere. A unique way of backing your opinion, and (liquidity permitting) a way to lock in profit away from the high frequency traders.
• Weather: For all the talk of hedging for outdoor events, most people bet on the weather for fun and profit. Markets include average temperatures, rainfall, major weather events at specific times and locations and more. The only market old school sportsbooks offered was for a white Christmas, prediction markets have so much more.
• AI, Space and Biotech: These are smaller markets, though AI milestones and breakthroughs offer significant liquidity. Benchmarks for new model releases and company-focused markets run. Space covers everything from the Fermi paradox, to SpaceX launches. Biotech markets include curing diseases and longevity. You won’t be able to bet on these markets anywhere else.

Prediction Markets and the Law: Can You Bet Legally from Your State?

This is a complex area!

Below is a snapshot, accurate up to the start of 2027.

You’ll find updates on news posts here at High Tech Gambling. This page will get an update when significant changes occur, for example the NV vs CFTC case reaching the Supreme Court.

With the current setup, the CFTC (Commodity Trading Futures Commission) has jurisdiction over prediction markets. The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has publicly stated that it presides over contracts which are considered securities. They include bets on Stocks (companies and indices), mergers and acquisitions, prices of crypto asset securities and corporate KPIs (will company A beat earnings estimates).

This is a significant part of the daily trading volume of prediction markets. Any legal action between these agencies would be interesting.

Separately, individual States are fighting the CFTC for control of sports betting and entertainment markets.

Kalshi and Polymarket are banned in Nevada, New Jersey and Minnesota for sports and entertainment (including politics) contracts. While the CFDC has asserted jurisdiction, the fight is likely to go all the way to the supreme court.

One future is where financials are controlled by the SEC, and sports contracts fall under State gambling statutes. That is a very different setup to the one we enjoy today. Could this force Prediction Markets offshore?

Separately, Utah has filed felony gambling charges against Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour. There are 13 charges in total, adding a new front in the legislative battles ahead.

When to Choose Prediction Markets and When to Choose Sportsbooks?

Neither platform is great for every bet.

Though there are clear examples of when you should pick an online sportsbook or prediction markets.

Which of these is most important to you?

Pick Sportsbooks Checklist:

• Liquidity: With sportsbooks, the odds you see are the odds you get. Lines displayed are honored for your entire wager. On prediction markets, these are only as good as the liquidity available on the other side of the bet. Pick sportsbooks for those times you need to be sure of the bet for the full amount.
• Complex Bets: Sportsbooks give you action for same-game parlays, multiple leg parlays, live betting markets and more. These bets are in their infancy at prediction markets (Kalshi has limited ‘Combo’ bets).
• Bonuses and Promotions: Sportsbooks offer big sign-on bonuses and ongoing promotions. These are small or non-existent in prediction markets. Loyalty reward schemes, cross-over (casino) promos and picks contests make offshore books more interesting for many bettors.

Pick Prediction Markets Checklist:

• Winners Don’t Get Banned / Limited: Prediction markets are two-sided marketplaces, and don’t ban winning players. Sportsbooks (other than the self-styled ‘sharp’ books), will limit the bet sizes of consistent winners quickly.
• Fees are Lower (on average): Kalshi charges 3.5% on winning contracts, which is lower than they typical 5% vig built into both sides in +110 lines at sportsbooks. Note that fees recently increased at Polymarket, with $250k+ in volume needed to get to the lowest tier.
• More Markets, More Fun: Markets in politics and entertainment hit the headlines, and you simply won’t find them in most offshore sportsbooks. Add novelty like AI, Space and even Weather prediction market contracts, and there are many more things to bet on.

For me, both formats have their place.

Best of all, you can work through sportsbook bonuses by hedging outcomes at prediction markets. A low-risk way to build your gambling bankroll.

Best Prediction Markets FAQ:

Are Prediction Markets Considered to be Gambling?

While there are arguments that Prediction Markets are trading platforms. My own view is that this is gambling by any fair definition.

Are Prediction Markets Legal?

For the time being yes. There are multiple fights going on that will clarify the legal status of prediction markets for the long term. I expect 2027 to be the year that many of the ongoing questions get answered. Currently the CFDC runs prediction markets. The role of the SEC (in securities adjacent markets) and state gambling laws (for sports and entertainment contracts) are the major battle grounds.

Are Prediction Markets Safe?

Yes. Stick to the bigger brands (or the parts of brands that offer this in addition to their main business like Robinhood or DraftKings) and you’ll be safe. This does depend on your location. Residents of UT, NJ and NV have their states actively fighting against these books. At the time of writing the only individual charged is CEO of Kalshi.

Which is Best for NFL Betting, Sportsbooks or Prediction Markets?

This depends on the type of bet you want to make. Moneyline, Spread and Totals contracts all exist on prediction markets. While they are worded slightly differently and their fee structure is winner-pays, they are the same bets.

For more markets, player props, same game parlays and better access to live betting and season-long wagers, offshore sportsbooks win the contest.

What Bonuses and Promotions do Prediction Markets Offer?

The short answer is not many. You’ll find small boosts like $25 in bet credits with your first deposit, and not much at all after that.

With little competition, these brands do not need to create budgets for bonuses that incentivize new bettors.

I’m hoping that the market shifts, and more competition boosts the number of promotions available. In the meantime, offshore sportsbooks compete fiercely for your business. You’ll find $1000+ welcome packages, and plenty of ongoing deals there.

How Does Pricing Work? What are Order Books?

Pricing on prediction markets is a simple percentage yes / no contract. You bet on either side, taking the published price. This is easy to translate into sportsbook odds, using a calculator or formula.

On prediction markets, the price shown may not apply to your entire wager.

These sites are two-sided markets. Without significant volume on the other side, your bet will fill the published price, and the next price becomes available for the rest of your wager. The order book is the amount of liquidity at different prices.

When you bet on a sportsbook, the published price is for your entire bet.

This mostly affects people betting larger amounts on prediction markets. Though in thin markets, it is easy to run into order book issues. Many tools or tipsters rely on published prices, exaggerating their potential for profit at prediction markets.

Can I Cash Out Bets Early at Prediction Markets?

Yes, this is a big plus for prediction market bets. You can sell or liquidate your position at any time, as long as there is someone willing to take the other side of the bet.

Planet Mark’s Wrap: Prediction Markets Beat Sportsbooks (In These Ways Only)

It is still early days for prediction markets, and I predict multiple changes in the coming year or two.

Currently, two big brands dominate. The proven model will attract competition, and once we have legal clarity, the market will attract serious capital.

The types of sports bet available are limited. Currently there is little outside of single match outcomes and basic player props. As the depth of order books rises, more markets become possible.

Sportsbooks will always have their place. Many people prefer the certainty of fixed odds compared to order books (where the volume may not be transparent). The bonuses and promos are far better at sportsbooks too.

As things stand, my favorite strategy is to grab as many sportsbook bonuses as you can by hedging the outcome at prediction markets.

This will build your gambling bankroll and put you in the best position when the boosted competition means prediction markets have the marketing budgets to fight for your business!