Betting on 147 Breaks in Snooker
Snooker has always been a popular televised sport internationally. It is now becoming popular domestically too.
Alongside this popularity comes an increase in betting opportunities. You’ll find multiple markets covering major tournaments and individual matchups at leading offshore sportsbooks.
One of the most popular bets is based around whether there will be a maximum break throughout the tournament.
In this article I examine the maximum break betting market in detail. Key here is how often a maximum break takes place, based on tournament history. Then I move on to look at various tournament types, and how the chances of a 147 break will vary depending on the format.
After that the three biggest snooker events each year are examined in detail. They are the UK Championship, the Masters and the World Championship.
147 Betting: The History of the Maximum Break
The first ever 147 break in a competitive match came in 1982 when Steve Davis compiled the magic number in a match against John Spencer at the Lada Classic.
For many, the first memorable 147 came the following year when Cliff Thorburn made a maximum break at the Crucible against Terry Griffiths. This was first maximum to be made at the World Championship. Many more have followed over the years, and at the time of writing there have been a total of 108 maximum breaks in competition. Twelve of these by Ronnie O’Sullivan and eleven by Stephen Hendry.
In recent years the number of maximum breaks has increased dramatically, with 2012 seeing eleven 147’s, and six in both 2013 and 2014. The days of this being a rare occurrence are long gone, and this is reflected in the sportsbook odds. While in the past you’d see odds in the +1000 range, it’s not possible to 10x your money anymore.
Key Strategy Considerations when Betting on a 147 Break
The first consideration should be the size of the tournament in regard to number of frames played.
Every additional frame played by top pros adds to the chances of a maximum break.
The first step is to check the size of the draw. Obviously, a draw with 128 players will offer many more matches (and therefore many more frames) than a 16-player draw. Next, you should check the format of the matches. Some tournaments will have matches as short as best of seven, the minimum match length at the World Championships is best of nineteen.
Your next consideration should be the quality of the tables. If players are complaining about the venue or you’re seeing a lot of kicks at the tables, these are not ideal conditions for a maximum break.
The final most important consideration is the players competing. Some players will have a natural instinct to go for a maximum break to entertain the crowd, even if at times they should choose another shot. Ronnie O’Sullivan being a prime example of this. Look at which of these ‘entertaining’ players are in the draw and look for a favorable draw for these players. You’ll want as many matches as possible for these players and against weaker players, they’ll have more chances of potting that opening red.
Examples: Assessing 147 Breaks in the Major Tournaments
The UK Championship
This championship now has a flat 128 player draw with all matches played at the Barbican Centre in York. With so many matches and each match being at least best of 11 frames, this tournament will offer the lowest odds of the three majors. I have seen sportsbooks offering odds as low as even-money on a 147 break.
The early rounds will see the top players in the world face lower ranked opponents, which is ideal for a maximum break. In 2012 there were three maximums during the tournament and one in 2013. For me, any lines offering better than even money represent great value at the UK championship.
The Masters
You’ll find much longer odds for a 147 at the Masters. This is because there is a select field of just 16 players at this tournament at the Alexandra Palace in London. Each match up until the final is best of 11 frames with the final itself being best of 19 frames. With each match being up against a top-level opponent, maximum breaks are rare at this tournament, with just two in its entire history. The last one was by Ding Junhui in 2007. As such, you’ll not want to back a maximum break at the Masters at odds of less than seven or eight to one.
The World Championship
Bookmakers will usually offer lines for a 147 for the final stages of the World Championship when the field has been whittled down to 32 and the play moves to the Crucible. The first-round matches are over the best of 19 frames, but the minimum match length after this is best of 25 frames, with the final itself being best of 35 frames.
This leads to a scenario where the top players will have many opportunities for a maximum. Keep in mind that quality of opposition is very strong, and the pressure in this tournament is much greater.
Over the years there have been 10 World Championship centuries, so you should consider a bet on a 147 here when the odds offered are around 2/1 or more.
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