Profiting from Bias in Sports Betting and Prediction Markets

How Bias can have an Effect in Betting and How You can Take Advantage

Bias is the enemy of seeking out true value in betting on sportsbooks and prediction markets.

But eliminating your own bias from bets is only one side of the equation.

By spotting instances where other people’s bias affects market prices, you will unlock profitable bets which others pass over. Bias can be towards your home team, star players or even a perceived pattern of results. Together, they have a huge effect on betting markets.

Knowing that this affects price is a great starting point.

It is how and when to use this extra information to make profitable bets that will give you a long-term edge.

Profiting from Bias in Sports and Prediction Market Betting

This page unwraps the topic of bias, using examples to show you how to profit from it.

The forms of bias covered are the team level, attacking vs defensive teams, the evergreen ‘gamblers fallacy,’ and avoiding being overly influenced by your personal picks.

Betting Bias: How Team or Player Popularity will Change the Odds

The betting public love bets on teams or players that hit the headlines. T

he more column inches a team / player takes up in the media or socials, the more money a sportsbook will take on them. This is especially true when it comes to the biggest games or events in sport, where the build-up might be all about one team or player.

A prime example of this was early 2014 in the build up to the Super Bowl.

This game was between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks.

Throughout the regular season and the playoffs, one man had dominated the year – the Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. And every neutral sports fan in the country wanted Manning to win another Super Bowl ring.

The early Vegas lines, however, told a different story. Sharp bettors clearly gave the Seattle Seahawks the edge. The experts considered the Seahawks the slightly better team and backed that opinion with millions of dollars.

In the two weeks leading up to the game, the odds changed drastically.

By the day of the game the Broncos were favored by 3 points by the sportsbooks. This move was fueled by the weight of public money on Manning and the Broncos. For smart gamblers, there was only one option here. That was to pile in on the Seahawks. The weight of public money was biased and did not reflect the real chances of winning on the day. Value was created, and the sharp bettors piled on.

The Seahawks won the game 43-8.

Bias in Betting: Who is the Public Focused on?

Look for situations in the bigger televised games which will attract a lot of money. Where much of the press attention is on or around a popular player or a team and then go against the crowd. You won’t win every bet, but over time getting true value from prediction markets and sportsbooks will grow your betting bankroll.

There are occasions in sport when there is an almost unknown opponent taking on a well-known team or individual. Many of the betting public will take the view that the big name MUST win against the opponent and back them blindly.

Spending some time looking at these matchups is a profitable strategy. You’ll find some great value spots where the unknown team will be overpriced. Here are three prime examples:

March Madness:

You’ll find many games in the annual college basketball championship where a team from a bigger conference will take on a less well-known team. Much of the money will come in for the ‘name’ team, and these spots can be profitable. Focus on the smaller teams when doing your research, and you’ll pick out these best spots.

European Soccer Matches:

You’ll find many games throughout the season between a big-name soccer team against an unknown opponent. This is common during the qualifiers for the Champions League and the Europa League. Don’t just assume that a team from Italy or Spain will beat that unknown team from Estonia. Take a good look at the game and understand that the Estonian known team might be more motivated and the Italian team might be resting key star players. You’ll find some great value spots in these games. Again, you need to do your analysis to unlock the real value.

Tennis Tours Including ATP and WTA Events:

There are so many tennis tournament events each year that many of the top players can’t commit to them all without affecting their fitness for the Grand Slams. This leads to occasions in the smaller events where a player might not be quite as focused as they should be. Here you’ll find value betting spots on occasions by backing the lesser-known opponents.

Bias in Sports Betting: Attacking v Defending Bias

There is nothing better in sport than watching a highly entertaining attacking team or player. These games are the ones you talk about and that stick in the memory years later. Conversely, a team or player with the opposite approach, who look to stifle their opponents can be forgettable, and you’ll probably not go out of your way to even watch them.

There are many situations where this can cause a big bias in the sportsbook or prediction market odds. The attacking team is backed heavily, which makes their odds short. Here real value can be found with the less popular defensive team. This is a common scenario in the post season of the big domestic sports. It may seem something of a cliché, but it is a fact that “Defenses win Championships.” Overall, you’ll find more value in a good defensive team/player than a good attacking one.

Gamblers Fallacy: Applying this Psychological Bias to Sports Betting

The Gamblers Fallacy is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a certain period, then it will occur less frequently as a result.

A prime example of this happened in Monte Carlo in 1913, when the ball landed in black 26 times in a row at a roulette table. Gamblers lost millions in the mistaken belief that the ball is more likely to land on red because of this incredible run.

It is the mistaken belief that a result is ‘due,’ even when the true odds of any outcome have not changed at all.

In sport, the reverse applies.

If a team or individual is winning or on a long streak of positive results, the expectation is that it will continue. Many bettors use this exact logic in their betting selections.

This can lead to these teams/players being very much underpriced relative to their true value.

An example of this took place in September 1996 at Ascot racecourse when Italian jockey Frankie Dettori had a day he’ll never forget. Dettori had seven rides and incredibly won each of his first six races. The final race of the day saw Dettori ride Fujiyama Crest, a horse that was rated as 12/1 chance at the start of the day.

Due to earlier success, the horse became the 2/1 favorite . Many considered this price to be the worst value bet in the history of sport. As an aside, Fujiyama Crest did indeed win, but this doesn’t change the fact that the horse was very much underpriced.

Look for these spots where the price becomes artificially low on a team or individual and back the opposition.

As with everything in prediction markets and sports betting, you’ll find value where the true odds of one result and price offered diverge.

Head versus Heart

When your favorite team is involved, it’s difficult to be truly objective.

Many sports bettors will overestimate the ability of their own team. The more pessimistic types will go the other way, assuming their team will lose. Whichever way you go will have a negative effect on your gambling over the long run.

The traditional advice to counter this is to suggest leaving the games involving your own team out when placing a wager.

This shouldn’t necessarily be the case if you are aware of the potential bias errors.

Usually, your favorite team is the team you are most knowledgeable about, and this SHOULD give you an edge. I’d suggest spending time studying the opposition before each game. This can help give you an objective view of the real odds. In turn you can then decide whether there is real value to be had.

Keep records on how you are performing, and if it’s working then carry on. Of course, this would require you on occasions to place a bet on the team facing your favorite team. I’ve heard people joke that they win either way (either money, or satisfaction).

For big teams in rich cities, considering the weight of ‘home’ money might skew the odds enough to give their opponents true value in the lines.

Hindsight and Betting Bias

Hindsight can cause a lot of trouble in sports betting.

Consider a situation where you place a bet on a team, certain that they’ll win and certain that you are receiving value. You watch the game, and despite dominating the game, the team you backed failed to win after being unlucky or performing badly.

After the game doubts creep in and you consider that the team weren’t as good as you thought they were. This can create a bias in your own mind where you might shy away from backing them the next time around. This could also trigger doubts about the process or system you used to evaluate this bet, despite the original bet having genuine value with everything known at the point you made it.

Look at games objectively after they have finished. On many occasions you’ll find that the bet was good. Even the smartest gamblers won’t win every time, the only good strategy is to keep taking value every time you bet.

Wrapping Up: How to Profit from Other’s Bias and Avoid these Errors in Sports Betting

There are many ways in which bias in sport will affect betting lines. Most of them involve the public rooting for a bigger or more popular name over a lesser-known name.

Look out for these spots in all sports and you’ll find that betting against the majority view will be beneficial to your bankroll in the long run.

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